TED Tuesday: Tali Sharot- The Optimism Bias

In the talk Tali shows a cartoon and speaks about a Penguin in a way that meshes perfectly with our own (re)IMAGINE theme. She notes, "Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there who just does not believe they can fly, you certainly never will. Because to make any kind of progress, we need to be able to imagine a different reality, and then we need to believe that that reality is possible."

Good Morning Folks,

What a great way to start of 2016 then commit to look at things through a more optimistic lenses!

Are we born to be optimistic, rather than realistic? Tali Sharot shares new research that suggests our brains are wired to look on the bright side — and how that can be both dangerous and beneficial. While the past few years have seen important advances in the neuroscience of optimism, one enduring puzzle remained. How is it that people maintain this rosy bias even when information challenging our upbeat forecasts is so readily available?

Optimism bias is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of good things happening to you, and underestimating bad things. For example 40% of people divorce, but people marrying assume the probability for them is zero. Even people marrying for a second time don’t see it: “Remarrying is the triumph of hope over experience”. People tend to be optimistic about themselves and their family, while at the same time predicting a bad future for the world in general.

Optimism about your own traits gives you a confidence and sets you up for success. But are low expectations the secret to happiness? This will mean you will be happy with success in love and career, but are not disappointed if it doesn’t happen. Our speaker today, with almost 10 million views of this program racked up between YouTube and on TED, is the author of author of The Optimism Bias and a research fellow at University College London's Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging. She argues the opposite, that optimistic people are happier because:

• Optimists interpret things differently. Whether they win or lose, they interpret successes as due to their own traits and failures as poor luck or biases.
• Anticipation makes people happy – something pleasant (a kiss from a celebrity) immediately isn’t as enjoyable as one in 3 days time – which lets you look forward to it
• Optimism acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy – it makes you try harder to achieve your goals. Optimism leads to success.

So how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? That is: stay optimistic despite evidence to the contrary. Tali did a study – asking people to estimate their cancer risk (for example), then giving the population rate (30%) and asking them again their likelihood. People did change their estimate, but they changed it a lot more if their first estimate was high (i.e. changing their estimate from 50% to 35%) rather than when it was low (going from 10% to 11%). Tali found that there were 2 regions of the brain: one responsible for receiving good news and one that processes bad news. The ‘bad news region’ did not trigger in optimistic people: they kept the rose tinted spectacles on.

On average, we expect things to turn out better than they wind up being. People hugely underestimate their chances of getting divorced, losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer; expect their children to be extraordinarily gifted; envision themselves achieving more than their peers; and overestimate their likely life span (sometimes by 20 years or more).

The belief that the future will be much better than the past and present is known as the optimism bias. It abides in every race, region and socioeconomic bracket. Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up are rampant optimists, but so are grown-ups: a 2005 study found that adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.

A cancelled flight is hardly tragic, but even when the incidents that befall us are the type of horrific events we never expected to encounter, we automatically seek evidence confirming that our misfortune is a blessing in disguise. No, we did not anticipate losing our job, being ill or getting a divorce, but when these incidents occur, we search for the upside. These experiences mature us, we think. They may lead to more fulfilling jobs and stable relationships in the future. Interpreting a misfortune in this way allows us to conclude that our sunny expectations were correct after all – things did work out for the best.

In the talk Tali shows a cartoon and speaks about a Penguin in a way that meshes perfectly with our own (re)IMAGINE theme. She notes, "Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there who just does not believe they can fly, you certainly never will. Because to make any kind of progress, we need to be able to imagine a different reality, and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best, you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. But if you're an optimistic penguin who believes they can fly, but then adjusts a parachute to your back just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, you will soar like an eagle, even if you're just a penguin."

Have a look...


Thanks to The Guardian and TedSummaries for inspiring me today and to you, for listening.

Have a GREAT DAY!

Love Life,

Mitchell D. Weiner

Chief Happiness Officer  

Ideas are not set in stone. When exposed to thoughtful people, they morph and adapt into their most potent form.TED Tuesdays on MitchWeiner.com highlights some of today's most intriguing ideas. Look for more talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and much more— HERE.